Building Regional Unity: Pakistan, Afghanistan, And Central Asia
In this series, we explored key geopolitical scenarios that shaped the world and Pakistan’s potential future: from Donald Trump’s return and a U.S.-led policy to isolate China, to Saudi Arabia aligning with the U.S.-Israel axis, and improbable shifts like Japan joining China or Pakistan and India resolving their disputes. We also examined the concept of a Pakistan-Afghanistan federation evolving into a Central Asian alliance, analyzing the challenges, opportunities, and proposed actionable steps for collaboration in trade, infrastructure, and security to unlock the region’s potential and navigate a rapidly shifting global order. Now, we propose the first steps targeted areas of immediate cooperation in trade, infrastructure, energy, and security that can accelerate collaboration and lay the foundation for this transformative alliance
Introduction
The journey toward a Pakistan-Afghanistan Federation and a broader Central Asian alliance begins with pragmatic and targeted cooperation. With a combined population of over 270 million people and access to vast natural resources including Afghanistan’s $1 trillion in untapped mineral wealth and Central Asia’s 40 billion barrels of oil reserves this alliance holds immense economic and strategic potential. Establishing a confederation as a flexible framework allows these states to address mutual challenges while respecting sovereignty. This initial phase focuses on collaboration in key areas such as trade, infrastructure, security, and cultural exchange. By leveraging shared resources, geography, and historical ties, this approach lays the groundwork for deeper integration and long-term regional stability.
The proposed areas of cooperation are not only vital for economic growth and security but also essential for preserving the region’s shared Muslim identity and cultural legacy. This collaboration is a step toward countering external threats and ensuring that the region reclaims its historical role as a center of trade, knowledge, and power.
Proposed Areas of Cooperation
1. Trade and Economic Cooperation
- Developing Trade Corridors: With Pakistan’s Gwadar Port projected to handle 13 million tons of cargo annually by 2030, this alliance can facilitate the movement of goods from Central Asia to global markets, bypassing traditional chokepoints.
- Customs and Tariffs: Streamlining customs regulations across the bloc could boost regional trade, which is currently less than 5% of total trade in Central Asia.
- Economic Zones: Establishing joint free trade zones and industrial parks could generate thousands of jobs and attract billions in foreign direct investment (FDI).
2. Infrastructure Development
- Transportation Networks: Building cross-border road and rail systems, such as the planned Pak-Afghan rail link, could cut transport costs by up to 30%, boosting trade efficiency.
- Energy Pipelines: Projects like the TAPI pipeline, expected to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, can supply energy to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India while generating transit revenue for member states.
- Digital Connectivity: Expanding fiber-optic networks, such as the CASA-1000 Fiber Optic Link, can facilitate digital trade and connect over 200 million internet users across the region.
3. Energy Collaboration
- Energy Sharing: Central Asia, with 5% of the world’s natural gas reserves, could supply affordable energy to South Asia through shared grids.
- Renewable Energy Projects: Joint investments in renewable energy, such as solar farms in Pakistan’s Thar Desert and wind projects in Central Asia, could reduce reliance on fossil fuels by 20% by 2030.
- Oil and Gas Distribution: Developing storage and refining facilities could enhance regional energy security and reduce import costs by 15–20%.
4. Security Cooperation
- Counter-Terrorism: Sharing intelligence and coordinating operations could reduce terrorism incidents by 25% within five years, according to regional security experts.
- Border Management: Efficiently managed borders could facilitate $2 billion in annual trade while reducing smuggling and illegal activities.
- Joint Defense Exercises: Regular military drills could improve regional defense capabilities, ensuring collective security against external and internal threats.
5. Immigration and Labor Movement
- Work Permits: Legal migration frameworks could boost remittances, already accounting for 10–20% of GDP in some Central Asian states, by enabling freer labor movement.
- Refugee Management: Collaborative refugee policies could stabilize regions hosting over 2.5 million Afghan refugees, ensuring humane treatment and regional support.
6. Education and Cultural Exchange
- Student Exchange Programs: Facilitating academic mobility can strengthen ties and enhance human capital, benefiting 10 million students in the region.
- Skill Development: Joint vocational programs could train over 500,000 youth annually, addressing unemployment and skills gaps.
- Cultural Promotion: Initiatives like shared festivals and museum exchanges can attract millions of tourists, promoting Islamic heritage and boosting economies.
7. Regional Development and Stability
- Reconstruction in Afghanistan: Mobilizing regional resources for reconstruction could create 1 million jobs and contribute to 2–3% GDP growth annually for Afghanistan.
- Agriculture and Food Security: Collaborative farming could increase regional food production by 15%, addressing food shortages and ensuring stability.
8. Environment and Resource Management
- Water Resource Management: Sharing water resources like the Amu Darya and Indus rivers could improve irrigation efficiency, benefiting over 30 million hectares of farmland.
- Climate Action: Joint initiatives could combat desertification and reduce emissions by 10% by 2030.
- Disaster Response: Coordinated responses to natural disasters like floods could save billions in damages and countless lives annually.
9. Tourism
- Visa-Free Travel: Simplified travel protocols could double regional tourist arrivals to 10 million annually, generating $5 billion in revenue.
- Heritage Sites: Promoting shared Islamic and Silk Road heritage could attract global interest, fostering cultural pride and economic benefits.
10. Healthcare
- Disease Control: Coordinated efforts to combat diseases could reduce cross-border epidemics by 20%, improving regional health outcomes.
- Medical Training and Exchange: Collaboration in healthcare could train 10,000 doctors annually, addressing shortages in rural areas.
- Affordable Medicine: Bulk procurement of pharmaceuticals could reduce costs by 30–40%, making healthcare more accessible.
11. Political and Diplomatic Coordination
- Global Representation: Coordinating positions in international forums like the UN, OIC, and SCO could amplify the bloc’s voice on global issues.
- Conflict Mediation: Facilitating peace talks could resolve long-standing disputes, ensuring regional stability.
- Sanctions and Trade Barriers: Unified strategies could help member states navigate international sanctions and economic pressures.
Preserving Muslim Identity and History
The confederation would play a pivotal role in preserving and promoting the Muslim identity and legacy in South and Central Asia. This region has historically been a cradle of Islamic civilization, producing scholars like Al-Biruni and fostering cultural and scientific achievements. However, rising Hindutva-driven narratives threaten to erase or diminish the contributions of Muslims in South Asia.
Also read this: Pakistan And Central Asian States Form An Alliance
By fostering educational and cultural collaboration, the alliance can safeguard this heritage. Initiatives such as joint historical research, preservation of Islamic monuments, and promotion of shared values would ensure that the Muslim identity remains a vital force in the region’s development. This effort is crucial for countering divisive ideologies and reaffirming the region’s place as a beacon of Islamic thought and progress
The proposed areas of cooperation in a Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia Confederation represent the foundation for a transformative regional partnership. With over $3 trillion in untapped economic potential, this alliance can unlock prosperity, ensure stability, and assert global influence. Moreover, it is essential for preserving the region’s Islamic identity against rising challenges, reaffirming its historical legacy while charting a path for future generations. This confederation offers a flexible and sovereignty-respecting framework that can evolve into a stronger union, paving the way for a united, resilient, and prosperous future.